Outcome bias in self-evaluations: Quasi-experimental field evidence from Swiss driving license exams

Exploiting a quasi-experimental field setting, we examine whether people are outcome biased when self-evaluating their past decisions. Using data from Swiss driving license exams, find that candidates who narrowly passed the theoretical exam significantly less likely to pass subsequent practical – which is taken several months after than those failed. Those on first attempt receive more objections regarding momentary, on-the-spot decisions in exam, consistent with idea underlying behavioral difference worse preparation.